[THE MAIN EVENT]
UpRising asked some critics, cinephiles, and a filmmaker to forecast how Hollywood’s biggest night will play out
UpRising: Who will be the big winner on Sunday?
Destiny Jackson (Awards Writer, Deadline): In terms of a singular movie winning across multiple categories? I believe Anora and Wicked will be the most recognized. Anora in above-the-line categories: Best Picture, Actress, and Director. Wicked will perhaps be popular in the below-the-line tech categories, hair & makeup, costuming, and production. The only thing giving Wicked a run for its money is Nosferatu.
Jourdain Searles (Film Critic and Comedian): My guess is either Anora or Conclave, since they’re less controversial than Emilia Pérez or The Brutalist. No clue where A Complete Unknown comes in—that may be the wild card.
Smriti Mundhra (Director; I Am Ready, Warden): Whoever gets to dress Colman Domingo.
Candice Frederick (Journalist): Truthfully, I have no idea. I have no crystal ball. But if the Oscars go the way the precursors have gone, I imagine Demi Moore and Zoe Saldaña are locks.
Zoe Saldaña has already won at the SAG awards and the Golden Globes. Will she complete the trifecta and take home an Oscar for Best Supporting Actress in Emilia Pérez?
Mundhra: It's hard to predict because this category is stacked, but it does feel like Zoe's year. And so well-deserved.
Searles: It seems Zoe is the favorite, but if not, Isabella [Rossellini] could take it. She has a whole career narrative behind her.
Jackson: I know BAFTA is international, but she won over there, too. That awards body also shares voter membership with the Oscars. While I was an Ariana Grande truther for a very long time, I had to change tides after the SAG awards. If Wicked had a chance to win anything in acting, it would have been there. So I’ve resigned to accepting a Zoe Saldaña sweep. And that’s OK, because she ate in Emilia Pérez.
Denzel Washington in Gladiator II: Did he get snubbed?
Searles: I don’t think even Denzel thought he was going to be nominated. The real Best Supporting Actor snub this year is Adam Pearson [for A Different Man].
Frederick: I think more notable snubs in the supporting actor category are Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing and John Earl Jelks in Exhibiting Forgiveness.
Jackson: Gladiator II was a popcorn movie; I don’t think it was meant for more than becoming a blockbuster. Denzel is a phenomenal actor and such a great part of Gladiator II, but he should have won for Malcolm X or The Tragedy of Macbeth, if we’re being serious. Denzel has also won two prior Oscars, so it’s OK that he didn’t get nominated for this role.
Will Colman Domingo finally get his flowers from the Oscars?
Searles: Colman winning [Best Actor] would be a dream! And he does have a chance against Adrien [Brody]. It really depends on whether the Academy goes against the grain this time.
Jackson: I mean, he’s got two consecutive nominations! That’s amazing for him, considering how he’s skyrocketed. He and Steven Yeun are the only ones to go from The Walking Dead universe and get Oscar recognition! So, I think while he most likely won’t snag the top actor prize this year, Hollywood loves him, and he will have another chance to win. He is certainly getting recognition flowers from his peers.
Mundhra: Colman gave an incredible performance in a very important, vital film. If it were up to me, Denzel would get an Oscar nomination every year just for breathing. But these are artists whose work transcends far beyond awards—their work is immortal. Nominations feel smaller than them.
Smriti, your work is nominated this year in the Best Documentary Short Film category. What excites you about the movies in the category?
Mundhra: Getting to know the filmmakers behind them! Kim Snyder, Molly O'Brien, and Bill Morrison are legends in the field. Ema Yamazaki is an exciting new voice. I'm so happy to be among them.
What are your top three Best Film nominees this year, ranked?
Frederick: The Substance, Conclave, Anora.
Jackson: 1) Anora is a standout to me because I feel it’s an experience canon to the female experience; spending time on losers who try to act like they are sincere at first and accidentally ignoring or not understanding when there’s a person with our best interest at hand waiting in the wings.
2) Nickel Boys pushed the boundaries on how stories can be told. It’s beautiful to look at and gives you a lot to think about in terms of the Black experience. The movie is important to understand how ingrained racism is in the fabric of our country... Stellar performances from all involved.
3) The Brutalist. Yes, it’s three hours with a built-in intermission, but it’s certainly the most stunning three hours I’ve spent in the theater in a long time. While the immigrant-trying-to-make-his-way-in-America story isn’t new, the visuals and motifs Brady Corbet uses to tell the story are at least refreshing. Adrien Brody does some career-defining acting here that can’t be ignored.
Mundhra: Nickel Boys [is] the most creative, transformative film I've seen all year.
Searles: 1) Nickel Boys. I think this is the film most ignored this awards season and it’s really a shame. It would be an extremely deserving Best Picture winner. A film from a Black director hasn’t won since Moonlight, and we’re beyond overdue.
2) The Brutalist. A film like The Brutalist winning Best Picture would really shake things up in a good way and be a great follow-up to Oppenheimer’s win [last year].
3) A Complete Unknown. Awarding a film with so much young talent would be an interesting choice for the Academy to make. It’s a crowd-pleaser that most voters would probably agree on.
—Peter A. Berry and Jermaine Hall
————
The 97th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 2, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. Who are you anticipating to take home some hardware?
The UpRising newsletter is a mixtape for your mind filled with information that's intellectual and irreverent—no skips. Whether it's film, music, art, food or the culture full stop, UpRising will serve as the starting point to your deep dives.